Monday 17 August 2020

Up to 6% of England's population may have had Covid, study shows

Imperial College home testing programme suggests 13% of Londoners have antibodies

About 3.4 million people in England – 6% of the population – have had Covid-19, with infections more common among members of black, Asian and minority ethnic communities, according to the results of a large home antibody testing study.

The results from the study, known as React-2, are based on home finger-prick antibody test results from 100,000 participants across the 314 local authorities in England.

“It gives us the most robust, cross-sectional estimate of the number of people who have been infected during the first wave of the pandemic,” said Prof Graham Cooke, a co-author of the research from Imperial College London. “Because we have done it in scale we can have more confidence about the differences between different groups,” he added.

Cooke said the study, which has not yet been peer reviewed, provides important insights, both for easing lockdown and preparing for a second wave.
Shoppers on Oxford Street in London. Up to 13% of people in the capital may have had Covid-19, a study has suggested. Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Rex/Shutterstock

“There is no evidence of anything near high-enough levels of herd immunity for this to be helpful at a population level and that it is likely there is a high proportion of susceptible people out there still that need to be protected,” he said.

The 3.4 million people that it represents is many times higher than the tally of known cases for the UK as posted by Johns Hopkins University in the US – whose aggregated numbers have become the main reference for monitoring the disease – and which listed the country’s case numbers at 315,546 as of Thursday morning.

The study tracked the spread of infection across England after the pandemic’s first peak, with randomly selected adults testing themselves at home between 20 June and 13 July.

The results show considerable geographical differences. While 13% of people in London had antibodies, this was the case for less than 3% of people in the south-west.

Infections were also more common members of BAME communities, at 17% for black ethnicity compared with 5% for white.

“That probably goes a long way to explain some of the differences in mortality that we have seen between black, Asian and white populations,” said Cooke. Cooked added this greater prevalence of infections can largely be explained by factors such as being more likely to have key-worker status, living in urban centres – particularly London – living in families with larger households, and living in more deprived areas, all of which were linked to a greater prevalence of antibodies.

“From what we can see, it is the social-demographic factors that make the greatest difference,” said Cooke.

People working in care homes (16%) and healthcare (12%) returned far higher results than people who were not key workers, at 5%.

The study also suggests 32% of people who had Covid-19 had no symptoms of the disease – previous research has suggested the figure could be anywhere between 30% and 70% of infections.

“The number we are coming up with is at the lower end, but it is clearly still a lot,” said Cooke.

The team used a highly accurate lab-based antibody test on blood samples from NHS workers who had previously tested positive for Covid, to estimate the proportion of people who have been infected but do not subsequently show antibodies. “We do see a clear association between severity of illness and the likelihood of having antibodies,” said Cooke, although the team noted nearly all those who had had a positive Covid-19 test had antibodies.

The team say the finger-prick test used in the final nationwide study correctly picked up antibodies 84% of the time in individuals with non-hospitalised Covid at more than 21 days since their illness.

Cooke said the team plan to do another round of the study in mid-September in 200,000 people to coincide with the return of schools. But Cooke warned such antibody tests remain of limited value for personal use, noting they are not yet accurate enough for such purpose while it is unclear how protective antibodies are against future Covid-19 infections, and at what levels or for how long.

Health minister Edward Argar said:“Large scale antibody surveillance studies are crucial to helping us understand how the virus has spread across the country and whether there are specific groups who are more vulnerable, as we continue our work to drive down the spread of the disease.”

David Heymann, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who was not involved in the study welcomed the work.

“This is a very important study, and it shows that the population is very willing to participate in activities towards better understanding of Covid-19 and its spread within England – hopefully this will lead to greater interest in participating in activities that will decrease the risk of transmission.”

(Source: The Guardian)

1 comment:

    High prolific information and Priviledges comes rare as i would be sharing with you magnificent insight you wish you heard years before now. As it's been understood that what people don't see, they will never know.
    When you wonder “which hacking company should I hire, the first aspect that should concern you is quality. Clearly, you want to embark for services that povides swift response, Thanks to our talented and Astonish Hackers , you are rest assured that your expectations will always be met. You’ll be glad to find out that our services Implies precisions and actions.
    This post is definitely for those who are willing to turn their lives around for the better, either financial-wise, relationship-wise or businesses.
    Welcome to the Global KOS hacking agency where every request on hacking related issues are met within a short period of time.
    If your shoe fits in any of the required services below, you will be assigned to a designated professional hacker who is systematically known for operating on a dark web V-link protocol.
    The manual Operation of this hackers is to potentially deploy a distinguished hacking techniques to penetrating computers and various type of database system to meet your request.
    Penetration of computing systems are achieved using core software tools like Ransomeware, SQL/Keylogger injection. botnet, trojan and DDOS attacks.
    Providing value added services to clients as a hacker has been our sustaining goal.
    Are you faced with cyber challenges like
    ��Recovery of lost funds:✅It saddens our mind when client expresses annoyance or dissatisfaction of unethical behaviours of scammers. We have striven to make tenacious efforts to help those who are victims of this flees get off their traumatic feeling of loss. The cyber security technique used to retrieving back the victims stolen funds is the application of a diverse intercall XX breacher software enables you track the data location of a scammer. Extracting every informations on the con database, every requested information required by the Global KOS would be used to tracking every transaction, time and location of the scammer using this systematic courier tracking base method.
    �� Hacking into the mobile phone of a cheating spouse.✅ This type of hack helps you track every movement of your cheater as we are bent on helping you gain full remote access into the cheater's mobile phone using a Trojan breach cracking system to penetrate their social media platforms like Facebook, whatsapp, snapchat etc. This spy processing is used via an HDSI folder which synchronizes the target mobile operating system into a clone S-Drive unit.
    ��Credit Score Upgrade:✅Due to our transformed changes on Equifax tracking , upgrading of credit score are backed by our cyber tech breaching licence, This hacking process drastically generates you an undestructive higher credit score which correlates to a higher level of creditworthiness. The time frame for upgrading a credit score requires eighteen(18) hours
    ��️ BITCOIN GENERATOR:✅ (Higher job profile). This involves using the ANTPOOL Sysytem drifting a specialized hardware and software implementing tool in slot even-algorithms to incentivize more coins into your wallet which in turn generates more coins exponentially like a dream at specified intervals.
    The company is large enough to provide comprehensive range of services such as.
    • Email hacks��
    • Hacking of websites.��
    • Uber free payment hacks.��
    • website hack.��
    Our strength is based on the ability to help you fix cyber problems by bringing together active cyber hacking professionals in the GlobalkOS to work with.
    ✉️Email: clarksoncoleman(at)gmail • com.
    Theglobalkos(at)gmail •com.
    ®Global KOS™
    Copyright® 2030.•√