Osama bin Laden: Eight years after his death, where is al-Qaeda?

It is eight years since Osama bin Laden, the founder of al-Qaeda, was killed by US forces in the Pakistani town of Abbottabad.

The organisation he led was considered one of the deadliest jihadist groups in the world, commanding thousands of fighters.

It was also believed to have had considerable financial resources.

There were anti-American protests in Pakistan following the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011

But with the demise of its leader and the emergence of the Islamic State group (IS), al-Qaeda's power and influence have weakened considerably.

So how influential is the group today, and what threat does it now pose to global security?

Quiet resurgence
While IS has dominated the headlines in recent years, al-Qaeda has been pursuing a strategy of quietly rebuilding and forging alliances with regional groups.

In its latest report, US National Intelligence has warned that senior al-Qaeda leaders are "strengthening the network's global command structure and continuing to encourage attacks against the West and the United States."

The UN, in a report published earlier this year on the threat of global terrorism, said that al-Qaeda "appears to be growing more ambitious…it remains resilient and active in many regions and retains the ambition to project itself more internationally."

In February this year the UK's intelligence chief, Alex Young, also warned of a resurgence of al-Qaeda.

Network of affiliates
A fierce drone campaign by US forces, the killing of its leader and the challenge from the Islamic State group has forced al-Qaeda to adopt new tactics.

It has successfully fostered a network of affiliates or "branches" in Africa, the Middle East and South Asia.

Bombings by al-Shabaab, an affiliate of al-Qaeda, are a regular occurence in Somalia.

These affiliates are local militant groups who are embedded in local communities and have sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda's leadership.

Unlike IS, al-Qaeda has been careful not to alienate local populations.

Part of its new strategy is to build local alliances and engage in community development projects.

In 2013 al-Qaeda issued a "General Guidelines for Jihad" which introduced significant reforms within the organisation.

The document, among other things, stresses a more restrained and community-based approach, instructing fighters to avoid behaviour which could trigger a "revolt of the masses."

"Al-Qaeda has made an art of homing in on local concerns, like corruption or marginalisation, and slotting them into its agenda of global jihad", according to Dr Elisabeth Kendall, senior fellow at Pembroke College, Oxford.

"In so doing, it acts a a local 'saviour' and positions itself as 'the good guys of jihad' as opposed to the brutal thugs of IS," she says.

Al-Qaeda has been steadily increasing its attacks through its various branches and affiliates.

In 2018 it carried out a total of 316 attacks around the world, according to data collected by The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).

Al-Qaeda branches

• Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) came into being in 2006 when an Algeria-based militant group affiliated with al-Qaeda. Following a crackdown by Algerian forces it has moved into the Sahel and West Africa.
• Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) was formed in 2009 in a merger between two regional offshoots of the international jihadist network in Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
• Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) operates in Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh, and was established in September 2014.
• Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is an al-Qaeda-affiliated organisation formed by the merger of several militant groups in Mali and West Africa.
• Al-Shabaab is active in Somalia and East Africa and swore allegiance to al-Qaeda in 2012.
• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is a merger of several Syrian militant jihadist groups, and has links to al-Qaeda, according to the UN. HTS currently controls Idlib province in northern Syria.
• Al-Qaeda in Egypt consists of al-Qaeda-aligned groups operating in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

Future leadership?
In a speech in 2015, al-Qaeda's current leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, introduced a young man as a "lion from the den" of bin Laden's terrorist network.

That young man was Hamza bin Laden, a son of Osama bin Laden who is widely seen as the future leader of al-Qaeda.

The US has officially designated Hamza as a global terrorist and has offered a reward of up to $1m (£750,000) for information on his whereabouts.

Hamza Bin Laden's whereabouts are not known

The 30-year-old has been promoted as a rising star on pro-al-Qaeda websites, someone they hope will inspire the next generation of jihadists, and reinvigorate the group.

In recent years, he has released audio and video messages calling on followers to attack the US and its Western allies in revenge for his father's killing.

According to Lina Khatib, head of Middle East and North Africa at Chatham House, "the end of IS caliphate has pushed al-Qaeda networks to be more thoughtful and strategic about their operations.

"Al-Qaeda is more dependent now on having a strategic leader. This is helping Hamza Bin Laden to gain support in his bid to replace his father as al-Qaeda's leader," she says.

(Source: BBC)

The dark side of social media

Earlier dictators and politicians made to the headlines. Times are changing and anyone can make history, not just some big politicians or celebrities. Even an ordinary person like a fruit vendor or a lousy filmmaker can hit the headlines, drawing the attention of the world, thanks to the digital world. People now have power to speak beyond their geographical confines.

Erstwhile unknown singers become famous overnight with a well-placed YouTube video and haters can pinch the right nerve endings at the most vulnerable time so American missions anywhere can go up in flames.

No wonder, countries are struggling hard to clamp down on the internet freedom on its citizens. One can be just a mute spectator if not stunned by the swiftness with which social media can change world events. Interestingly, no longer countries and terrorist organisations have “a monopoly of power to press those dangerous buttons. Those buttons are available now for as little as $199 for the latest iPhone”.

Andrew Lam, an editor with New America Media, has written an excellent article on this issue and here’s the original piece:

In 2010, Time magazine's prestigious Person of the Year title went to Mark Zuckerberg, the founder of Facebook. He was the choice of the magazine's editors, though its readers picked Julian Assange, the founder of the whistle-blower website WikiLeaks.

"Facebook is now the third-largest country on earth and surely has more information about its citizens than any government does," the magazine noted. Assange, for his part, undermined nation states' public narratives by providing a platform where individuals can anonymously show their government's dark underbellies.

In 2011, a fruit vendor made the cut. Mohammed Bouazizi, a Tunisian who set himself ablaze protesting at corruption, became literally the torch that lit the Arab spring revolution. Bouazizi's death was seen by many who had mobile phones and the videos kick-started the uprising.

This year, no doubt Time can add "Nakoula Basseley Nakoula", aka "Sam Bacile", as a contender. An unknown amateur filmmaker until this week, he fanned anti-America outrage in the Middle East with incendiary video clips of a US-made film that mocked and insulted the Prophet Mohammed.

Nakoula/Bacile is in hiding and may in fact be fictitious. Evidence now points to him as an Egyptian Coptic Christian who holds grudges against Islam.

The jury is out on who instigated the violence against US personnel in Libya, resulting in the death of the American ambassador and three others. The attack was carefully planned, it was reported, and not the mere work of angry protesters - but few doubt that the film had a direct effect in stoking anger in the Middle East.

In the global age, it seems that not only dictators or overzealous elected heads of state with the power of pre-emptive strikes can direct history to the edge of an abyss, but also fruit vendors and lousy filmmakers.

Even al-Qaeda, for all its planning and propaganda, hasn't achieved what the film and its 14-minute YouTube trailer has; quickly undermining much of the US' soft diplomacy in the region.

In a blog for The Boston Globe, a friend of slain ambassador Chris Stevens asked: "How could Chris Stevens die because of a YouTube clip?" Alas, the answer is: why not in our information age?

It is worth noting that within a day after the deaths in Libya, Apple launched its iPhone5. Through the digital world, people attain power to speak beyond their geographical confines. Erstwhile, unknown singers can become famous overnight with a well-placed YouTube video. And haters can pinch the right nerve endings at the most vulnerable time so American missions anywhere can go up in flames.

Nation states are stunned by the swiftness with which social media can change world events. Excited copycats are waiting in the wings. Why not make a false video showing Japanese killing Chinese on Diaoyu Islands? Why not show blurry videos of Pakistani soldiers raping Hindu women in Kashmir? The list is endless.

This moronic filmmaker has made his point. No longer do heads of state and terrorist organisations have a monopoly of power to press those dangerous buttons. Those buttons are available now for as little as US$199 for the latest iPhone.

(Source: South China Morning Post)